How I Decide If A Clearance Drive Is Actually Worth It
The Question That Saved Me $1,200 A Year
For about a year I drove to every penny item I saw on the deal subs. Then I sat down and did the math on a typical Saturday’s hunt: 47 miles round-trip, two hours of my Saturday, and I came home with a $35 pressure washer attachment.
If I’d valued my Saturday at literally anything, the trip lost money. If I’d just sat home and not driven, I’d be ahead.
That afternoon I wrote the rough framework below on the back of a CVS receipt. I’ve refined it since, but the core math hasn’t changed.
The 5 Numbers
I plug five numbers into my head before I drive anywhere for clearance:
- The item’s resale value (or replacement cost, if I’m keeping it)
- The clearance price
- Round-trip distance in miles
- Round-trip time in minutes
- The probability the item is still there when I arrive
That’s it. From those five, I get an expected value. If it’s positive, I drive. If not, I don’t.
The Math, Simplified
Here’s the back-of-envelope version I run in my head:
Expected gain = (resale value − clearance price) × probability still there − (miles × $0.40) − (minutes / 60 × my hourly value)
For me, $0.40/mile covers gas, wear, and a partial allowance for vehicle cost. (The IRS standard business mileage rate is $0.67/mile in 2026 — that’s a fully-loaded number including depreciation. $0.40 is closer to true variable cost on a paid-off vehicle.) My time I value at $35/hour for this purpose, which is conservative for me but high enough to keep me honest.
A worked example. Friend texts: “$0.01 DeWalt drill at store 4218, 22 miles away, retail $129.”
- Resale value: $129 (assume keepable retail; for resale via Amazon FBA, knock 30% off, so $90)
- Clearance price: $0.01
- Miles: 44 round trip
- Minutes: 65 round trip
- Probability still there: ~30% (penny item, 22 miles out, posted in a public deal sub — it’s a long shot)
Expected gain = (90 − 0.01) × 0.30 − (44 × $0.40) − (65/60 × $35) ≈ $27.00 − $17.60 − $37.90 ≈ negative $28.50
I don’t drive. And historically, this exact pattern of trip is the one I most regretted.
The Probability Number Is The One People Miss
The first four numbers are easy. The probability — how likely the item is still there when I arrive — is where most people lie to themselves.
My rough probability table, from two years of data and personal experience:
| Scenario | Probability still there |
|---|---|
| Penny item, public deal sub, >15 miles away | 5–15% |
| Penny item, private alert, <10 miles away | 40–60% |
.03 clearance, public sub, <10 miles | 35–55% |
.06 clearance, anywhere, <25 miles | 60–80% |
| Open box appliance, called ahead to confirm | 75–90% |
| “Hidden” clearance (unposted) I found on my own scan | 50–70% |
If I’m using my own tracker and I’m the only one who’s seen the item, the probability is much higher than if it’s been on Reddit for two hours.
The “Called Ahead” Caveat
You can manipulate the probability number one way: call the store. Home Depot will often confirm a SKU is in stock at a specific price if you ask nicely. About 60% of the associates I’ve dealt with will do this; 40% won’t, depending on the store’s culture.
A confirmed-on-phone item moves to ~85% probability. That alone can flip a negative-expected-value trip into a positive one. It’s the single highest-leverage move I make.
Where The Framework Breaks Down
It’s a model, and like all models it lies a little.
Things it doesn’t capture:
- Enjoyment. Some weekends I just like driving and treasure-hunting. The expected value can be slightly negative and I’ll go anyway, because the activity itself has value.
- Compounding info. A trip to a store I haven’t visited in months gives me intel — what their clearance section looks like, what’s stocked, who works there. That has long-run value.
- The flip portfolio. If I’m running an Amazon FBA flip side hustle, a $20 expected loss on one trip can be acceptable insurance to keep the pipeline of items flowing.
Things it overstates:
- My hourly value. $35/hour is what I use for honesty, but for a Saturday morning when I’d otherwise be watching TV, the real opportunity cost is closer to $0.
- The probability for hard-to-find items. If something’s genuinely rare (a discontinued Husky tool chest, a 50%-off Weber), the resale value might be higher than retail, and I should adjust.
I don’t run the formula precisely. I run it directionally. The point isn’t to compute to two decimal places — it’s to catch the trips where I’m clearly fooling myself.
The single biggest way to push probability up is using a private scan instead of a public deal sub. That's what Endless does.
Try FreeFive Trips That Failed The Math (And One That Looked Bad And Worked)
Concrete examples from my own year:
Trip 1: 38 miles for a $0.01 ceiling fan. Public sub, 4 hours old. Probability ~10%. Got there, gone. Cost me $15 in gas and a Saturday morning.
Trip 2: 12 miles for a .03 Behr 5-gallon. My own scan, 90 minutes old. Probability ~50%. Got there, two left, bought both. Cleared ~$60 net.
Trip 3: 45 miles for an “easy flip” Milwaukee combo at .06. Public sub, I rationalized that resale value was high. Probability was actually ~20% and I knew it. Got there, gone. Drove home angry.
Trip 4: 8 miles for a Ryobi blower at .06. Called ahead, confirmed. Probability ~85%. Profit: small but real. Easy.
Trip 5: 22 miles for a Husky tool chest at .01. Public, 6 hours old. Should have been a no-go. Drove anyway. Gone, obviously. Brought home a sympathy clearance grill cover I didn’t need.
The one that looked bad: 28 miles for an open-box LG dishwasher, 50% off but no confirmation. Looked like a coin flip. Called the store, got a real human who walked to the floor and confirmed it. Trip became 90% probability. Bought it. Saved $640.
The “bad-looking” trip won because I added information (the phone call). The bad trips usually lost because I didn’t.
The Habit I’m Trying To Build
The honest goal of all of this isn’t to compute the right number. It’s to install a 60-second pause before I get in the car. The pause is enough. If I actually run the rough numbers, the bad trips remove themselves. The hard part is sitting still for 60 seconds when my brain is yelling “JUST GO.”
I’m not perfect at it. But I’m a lot closer than I was a year ago, and the difference in my Saturdays is real.
Higher Probability, Less Driving
The single biggest input in the math above is probability — and a private scan beats a public deal sub every time. Endless scans every store twice daily and shows you what's there before the sub finds it.
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Frequently Asked Questions
How far is too far to drive for a clearance deal?
It depends entirely on the resale or use value of the item and the probability it’s still there. For most penny items posted publicly, anything over 15 miles is rarely worth it. For confirmed-by-phone open-box appliances, 30+ miles can still be profitable.
Should I call the store before driving?
Yes, almost always. A successful confirmation call can take a 15% probability up to 80%+, which is usually the difference between a profitable and unprofitable trip. About 60% of associates will help if you ask politely.
What gas-per-mile rate should I use?
I use $0.40/mile as a rough all-in number (gas + wear + vehicle cost). The IRS uses ~$0.67/mile for business deductions. If you’re being honest about full cost, somewhere in that range is fair.
Is your math too conservative?
Probably, slightly. I’d rather skip a marginal good trip than take a marginal bad one. The asymmetry of regret is real: failed trips feel a lot worse than successful trips feel good.
What’s the easiest win in this framework?
Call the store. Confirming the item is in stock before you drive is the single highest-leverage move and almost nobody does it.